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Estimated probability of competing in college athletics

Nearly eight million students currently participate in high school athletics in the United States.  More than 480,000 compete as NCAA athletes, and just a select few within each sport move on to compete at the professional or Olympic level.

The table shows how many high school and NCAA athletes compete in each sport along with an estimate of the percentage of high school athletes going on to compete in the NCAA. 

In contrast, the likelihood of an NCAA athlete earning a college degree is significantly greater;  graduation success rates are 86% in Division I, 71% in Division II and 87% in Division III.

Download the 2020 Probablility of Competing Beyond High School Figures and Methodology

  High School Participants NCAA Participants Overall % HS to NCAA % HS to NCAA Division I % HS to NCAA Division II % HS to NCAA Division III
Men
Baseball 482,740 36,011 7.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.9%
Basketball 540,769 18,816 3.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.4%
Cross Country 269,295 14,303 5.3% 1.8% 1.4% 2.1%
Football 1,006,013 73,712 7.3% 2.9% 1.9% 2.5%
Golf 143,200 8,485 5.9% 2.0% 1.6% 2.2%
Ice Hockey 35,283 4,323 12.3% 4.8% 0.6% 6.8%
Lacrosse 113,702 14,603 12.8% 3.1% 2.5% 7.3%
Soccer 459,077 25,499 5.6% 1.3% 1.5% 2.7%
Swimming 136,638 9,799 7.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3.2%
Tennis 159,314 7,785 4.9% 1.6% 1.0% 2.3%
Track & Field 605,354 28,914 4.8% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7%
Volleyball 63,563 2,355 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 2.3%
Water Polo 22,475 1,072 4.8% 2.7% 0.8% 1.3%
Wrestling 247,441 7,300 3.0% 1.0% 0.8% 1.2%
Women
Basketball 399,067 16,509 4.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7%
Cross Country 219,345 15,624 7.1% 2.7% 1.7% 2.7%
Field Hockey 60,824 6,119 10.1% 2.9% 1.4% 5.8%
Golf 79,821 5,436 6.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.1%
Ice Hockey 9,650 2,531 26.2% 8.9% 1.1% 16.2%
Lacrosse 99,750 12,452 12.5% 3.7% 2.6% 6.2%
Soccer 394,105 28,310 7.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.9%
Softball 362,038 20,419 5.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.2%
Swimming 173,088 12,980 7.5% 3.3% 1.2% 3.0%
Tennis 189,436 8,596 4.5% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0%
Track & Field 488,267 30,326 6.2% 2.8% 1.5% 1.9%
Volleyball 452,808 17,780 3.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.6%
Water Polo 21,735 1,217 5.6% 3.3% 1.1% 1.2%

Sources: High school figures from the 2018-19 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations; data from club teams not included. College numbers from the NCAA 2018-19 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report.

Last Updated: April 8,2020

Methodology and Notes

  • High school figures come from the 2018-19 High School Athletics Participation Survey conducted by the National Federation of State High School Associations.  College numbers are from the NCAA’s 2018-19 Sports Sponsorship and Participation Rates Report. These college numbers account for participation in college athletics at NCAA-member schools only.    
  • High school-to-NCAA percentages were calculated by dividing the number of NCAA participants in 2018-19 by the number of HS participants in that same year.  This assumes that high school and college rosters are turning over at roughly the same rate (e.g., both HS and college participation numbers include four classes of students and both sets of teams turn over roughly one-quarter of their rosters each year).  In prior versions of this table, more complex calculations were used to estimate the number of HS departures and open college roster slots each year; however, these more involved calculations did not lead to substantially different percentages than the simple calculation used currently.  Given several potential confounds (e.g., multi-sport participation in high school, frequency of redshirt in NCAA Division I football that would lead to a 5-year rather than 4-year college track), these calculations should be considered approximations and not exact accounting. 
  • The high school-to-NCAA divisional percentages were calculated by dividing the number of 2018-19 participants within each NCAA division by the total number of HS participants. For example, we estimate that approximately 3.5% of HS boys basketball participants go on to play at an NCAA school (Divisions I, II or III), but only 1.0% of HS participants do so at the Division I level.
  • As the high school figures account only for participants on high school teams and not those competing exclusively on club teams or similar, the true pre-college to NCAA percentages could be lower in some sports (e.g., ice hockey, tennis, see this page for sport-specific information regarding club and high school sport participation).  Data for several sports (e.g., rowing, skiing, gymnastics) are not shown due to the low number of high school programs in those sports relative to non-scholastic pre-college participation opportunities.